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and are well aware that our 75% claim is related to the up-dated garrison cost of £39m. Moreover in their forward estimates for 1976-77 prepared in the first half of this year Hong Kong officials have already allowed for a contribution of at least £17m; the unofficials will presumably be aware of this and it is arguably no more than an opening bid. At the same time the Hong Kong

representatives may be expected to say

-

17

continue as in original.

Delete "probably". In the sixth

(j) Paragraph 9, fourth sentence sentence amend to "They will also argue that ...". (We are not quite sure on what grounds Hong Kong can argue that HMG derives economic benefit from the Colony; it is difficult to see what this

may be now that their sterling balances are not increasing; we shoul be grateful for further guidance, so that we can prepare counter- arguments. So far as the garrison is concerned it is a drain on our resources).

(k) Paragraph 10, second and fifth sentence We think that the steering brief should give a brief explanation of the nature of a constitutional crisis. We think the last sentence of this paragraph should be omitted. At OPD the Chancellor indicated that if Hong Kong was not prepared to meet our claims, we might have to reconsider the size of the garrison again.

(1) Paragraph 13 - We think it would be helpful to have a section in the steering brief on the salient points of the MOU, and in particular those to which Hong Kong may be expected to attach particular importance and which may therefore enter into the main negotiations at some point. These are (1) the review clause, (ii) the size of capital programme and (iii) the release of land. The steering brief might also give a short account of the inflator, bringing out the point that the figures entered in the agreement will be at September 1975 prices and that the inflator will be applied quarterly in arrears to update the payments during the year.

m) Paragraph 16. We wonder whether the question of reinforcement capability should not be spet out in more detail in this paragraph particularly the difficulties over Brunei, since we are inclined to think this is a point which the Minister may have to deal with

himself.

(n) We have doubts as to whether too much stress should be placed on detailed comparison of the UK and Hong Kong economies, except in He Govetur the rather general terms of the opening draft statement.

to suggest an amendment to this paragraph on Tuesday.

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