MINUTES OF EVIDENCE TAKEN BEFORE THE EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE
11 February, 1975.]
57
[Continued.
ANNEX C
DEFENCE REVIEW-ESTIMATED COSTS OF LOST EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
1. The estimated reductions from present strengths of personnel engaged in Defence over the five-year period were given in paragraphs 41 and 43 of S.C.O.E. 70:
Service manpower
35,000 (now re-estimated as 38,000) Civilians directly employed in U.K.
14,000 Employment in Defence industries
10,000
2. This reduction in jobs might give rise to redundancy of, say, 20,000, the remainder being effected by natural wastages over a period of four years. We cannot make a reliable forecast of the cost of this for the following reasons:
(a) We do not know at this stage what proportion of the forecast reductions in jobs will be met by normal wastage and what proportion will result in redundancy;
(b) It is not possible to predict how many of those who might be out of work as a result of the Review would be school-leavers and how many would be those actually made redundant;
(c) The cost of unemployment in terms of benefits payable and national insurance contributions foregone depends on the length of unemployment fol- lowing discharge and this in turn depends on the general level of unemployment at the time. This cannot be reliably predicted over the period of four years. during which redundancies may occur.
3. The best " guestimate "
we can make relates to a special study by the Depart- ment of Employment, which showed that in 1969-70 the average period of unemploy- ment for all age-groups, male and female, was 8 weeks. A similar figure for the four years ahead might be about 13 weeks. The average cost to the Government of benefits paid and contributions foregone is roughly £1,000 per person per annum. On the assumption of 20,000 redundancies this would cost about £5 million over the four years or £1.25 million per annum.
4. It cannot be too strongly emphasised that these figures are given to illustrate the order of magnitude of the problem and should not be regarded as accurate forecasts.
H.M. DOCKYARDS-PRESENT CAPACITY AND WORKLOAD AND EFFECT OF THE DEFence REVIEW
Present Capacity and Workload
ANNEX D
1. The Royal Dockyards at present employ approximately 26,600 industrial and 7,600 non-industrial personnel. Of the Home Dockyards' labour force of about 25,600, approximately 12,500 are craftsmen, 800 minor tradesmen, 9,500 semi-skilled and unskilled, and 2,800 apprentices.
2. * *
3. Each of the four Home Dockyards is loaded with a balanced programme of refits of various types of warships but each specialises in certain major classes.
4. The largest Dockyard, Devonport, employs 9,800 industrials and 2,400 non- industrials. It undertakes the largest share of major Frigate refits and is planned to begin taking on a dual stream of Nuclear Submarine refits by 1979.
*
*
*
5. Portsmouth has a workforce of 6,800 industrials and 1,800 non-industrials. It has a major share of conventional submarine refits and is the lead Yard for Guided Missile Destroyers and the current and future generation of Cruisers
*
**
6. Chatham's workforce is currently 4,600 industrials and 1,700 non-industrials and undertakes the refitting and refuelling of the Navy's Nuclear Fleet Submarines. Its 1975/76 programme includes a dual stream of these refits.
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