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changing attitudes to authority and the more violent and restless attitudes of youth. The latter could become more unsettled and significant as 1997 approaches.
7. As regards the border areas, even with the present Chinese policy there is a constant danger of minor incidents which need to be controlled, eg with the farmers who regularly cross the border from China, or the pursuit of illegal emigrants by Chinese land or sea forces. These could, and often have, led to situations in which the authority of the British Government in its own territory must be re-asserted.
8.
The current Chinese policy of maintaining the status quo in Hong Kong and consequently of keeping the temperature down could be affected:
9.
a.
b.
c.
d.
by serious internal unrest in Hong Kong. This could encourage the CPG to attempt to secure indirect control of Hong Kong (as they have in Macau), or, in the case of prolonged unrest, oblige them to intervene directly in
some way.
if the Chinese Government should fail to control its followers in Hong Kong, as it did for a time in 1967.
by a change of Chinese leadership which led to a change in Chinese tactics or policy.
by an upheaval in China which could conceivably accompany or succeed a change of leadership and produce confusion in Kwangtung. The possibilities for Hong Kong could include violation of the border by troops of one faction or another or at least danger of increased tension, Dissension in China could also lead to factional rioting in Hong Kong between local communist groups.
In any of the situation in paras. 6, 7, or 8 the Hong Kong Police might be obliged to call upon the Armed Services for support. It has been thought correct hitherto to have a garrison large enough to be able to take action simultaneously in all three main areas of potential disturbance, ie (1) the old urban areas, (2) the new towns and rural areas of the New Territories, and (3) the land and sea borders. In present circumstances, this concept is not so likely to apply in the situation of paragraphs 6 and 7 above or in the early stages of paragraph 8(a). But it
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