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TO PRIORITY HONG KONG TELEGRAM NUMBER 139 OF 21 FEBRUARY.
YOUR TELNO 162: DEFENCE COSTS.
FROM STUART.
1. I HAVE DISCUSSED WITH SIR D WATSON AND MOD.
2. YOUR (A). MINISTRY OF DEFENCE REPRESENTATIVE IS NOW PLANNING
TO ARRIVE ON 1 MARCH AND JACKSON ON 12 MARCH.
3. YOUR (B). THE FORMAL TERMS OF REFERENCE MIGHT PERHAPS BE AS
NOW PROPOSED BY MOD TO CDF: BUT SUGGEST THAT THE UNDERLYING
OBJECTIVE SHOULD SIMPLY BE TO TRY ONCE AGAIN TO PLAN MODIFIED
AND CHEAPER FORCES THAT COULD DO THE JOB. THIS WAS WHY WE PROPOSED
THAT THE SURVEY SHOULD BE DONE IN HONG KONG, SO THAT FULL ACCOUNT CAN BE TAKEN OF ALL SECURITY FACTORS, INCLUDING THE POLICE. 4. THE SUGGESTION OF ABOUT POUNDS 35 MILLION WAS BASED, AS YOU WILL REMEMBER, ON A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF WHAT A 4 AND TWO THIRDS UNIT FORCE MIGHT COST. BUT THE PRIME MINISTER HAS NOW AGREED
THAT QUOTE FURTHER WORK SHOULD BE DONE IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE
GARRISON IN HONG KONG AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE UNQUOTE, FOR THIS PURPOSE
WE WOULD NOT SEE ANY PARTICULAR MAGIC IN EITHER FIGURE, IF THE
JOB CAN BE DONE FOR LESS THAN POUNDS STERLIN 35 MILLION, WITH FEVER TROOPS, OR A DIFFERENT MIX OF FORCES, SO MUCH THE BETTER. WE AGREE THERE WOULD BE A PROBLEM IF THE TEAM CONCLUDED THAT
THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF DOING THE MINIMUM THAT IS REQUIRED
FOR AS LITTLE AS POUNDS STERLING 35 MILLION. IN THAT EVENT THEIR REPORT MIGHT HAVE TO BE IN TWO PARTS : (A) WHAT CAN BE PRODUCED FOR ABOUT POUNDS STERLING 35 MILLION: AND (B) WHAT, IN THE LIGHT OF THEIR REVIEW, IS THE LOWEST SAFE GARRISON, AND WHAT WOULD IT COST. FINAL POLITICAL DECISIONS COULD THEN BE TAKEN ON THE
BASIS OF THE TRUE FACTS.
SECRET
15. WE THINK THE
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