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lecl
& HKK 4/1 23/7/76
I
Mr Male
Sir D Watson
HONG KONG:
Flac
1.
70
Flag B
I agree
LONG RANGE PLANNING
In Sir Duncan Watson's minute of 4 September, he asked
for Mr Youde's views on the ideas put forward in my submission of 2 September: and for us to consider the feasibility of the proposed line on a variety of time scales up to 1977.
2.
Mr Youde did not see much merit in these proposals in general and saw insuperable difficulties about putting them forward to the Chinese next May, or, indeed, at any time before the successor regime to Mao and Chou had emerged in China. He said that, as explained in the concluding section of his despatch "China: The State of the Nation" (FEC 1/1) dated 15 July 1975, it was difficult to identify which new leaders would emerge and what policies they would pursue. Any serious discussion of the future of Hong Kong while Mao and Chou were alive could well be disowned by a successor regime. We would thus be giving an unnecessary hostage to fortune by seeking to engage the Chinese in such a discussion at this stage, or indeed at any time up to 1977, since even if Mao and Chou were to disappear from the scene in this period there must be doubts about the direction of a successor regime until it has had time firmly to establish itself.
3.
This point seems to me to be well taken. In view of this, the apparent change of heart by Mr Donald and the fact that we have not yet received the Governor's promised despatch on the subject, seems to me to argue decisively against pursuing these ideas at this time.
4.
On the substance of the matter, Mr Youde made the point that we could not take the line suggested in my submission of 2 September unless and until we had decided that the balance of advantage lay in retaining Hong Kong. This is a fair point and
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/much will