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in a position to argue for or against either proposition. Perhaps the PUS would be good enough to advise after he has seen the Governor.
2 December 1975
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Sir D Watson
Mr Larmour
Mr Cortazzi
Nr Male
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PL O'Keeffe
Hong Kong & Indian Ocean Dept.
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Background
2. The outline paper prepared for the Minister's consideration in August is attached. The Minister considered that it was a reasonable statement of the case but felt that, at our current level of knowledge, it would probably be necessary to recast it so that the crucial argument for the status quo, the contingent immigration liability, came first. This will be done but we shall have meanwhile to give some thought to Sir Michael Palliser's observation that this liability grows by at least 80,000 per year for every year that the status quo continues.
3..
The Minister also thought that we needed an annex of statistical material indicating the positive value of Hong Kong to us at the present time. We have made considerable efforts to obtain this information but statistics of invisibles are not kept on a country by country basis here and it has proved impossible to produce such an annex from British sources. During Mr O'Keeffe's visit to Hong Kong in October, he mentioned the problem to the Governor who promised to make enquiries at his end. During his visit Mr O'Keeffe received various unofficial estimates, some of which indicated that visibles and invisibles together, and the value of landing rights at kai Tak airport in negotiations for British Airways elsewhere, might amount to as much as 500 million annually. (During the previous Administration, the Governor sought to paint a somewhat rosy picture of the positive value of Hong Kong to Britain but this was generally regarded as exaggerated.)
The Minister also made a number of other points (e.g. the value of intelligence in our relations with the Americans) of which the Department have a note. These were mainly on points of detail and will be included in the next version of the paper incorporating the Governor's comments.
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Hong Kong & Indian Ocean Department
27 November 1975
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LORD GORONIY-ROBERTS'S MEETING WITH THE GOVERNOR OF HONG KONG:
DECEMBER 1975
BRIEF NO. 7
THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S VISIT TO HONG KONG AND PEKING
Line to Take
1.
In discussion with the Governor, the Minister might care
to make the following points:
(a)
The visit of the Secretary of State to Hong Kong provides a useful opportunity to emphasise that, despite the problems which occur from time to time, the fundamental relationship is sound. The crux of the difficulties inherent in the colonial position between ourselves and Hong Kong is that we share the benefits of Hong Kong's economic success with the rest of the world but we alone shoulder the disadvantages. It is important that
he should be left with the feeling that the local population, which benefits most from the British connection, fundamentally appreciates that connection. (b) It would, therefore, be most unfortunate if problems
over e.g. textiles or any lingering resentment over defence costs should bulk too large during the visit. (c) Other Ministerial visitors in the past have remarked
on the general anti-British feeling amongst expatriates in llong Kong. Local Chinese opinion strikes us as on the whole more moderate and we are sure the Governor will realise the importance of the majority voice being heard with due emphasis.
(d) Cur impression is that the capital punishment issue may
now recede somewhat. This is fortunate. Equally, · the considerable social progress made in the Governor's period of office should do a good deal to reassure the Secretary of State that the needs of the local population as a whole are being catered for within the limitations. of Hong Kong's economic situation.
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