APPENDIX 2—(Contd.)
2. By adopting the same ratio of psychiatric to general beds as the average in developed countries, i.e. 53 per cent or 28 per cent minimum, Hong Kong would need 2.25 or 1.2 beds per thousand population.
3. Using the recommended norms for future planning in England and Wales, i.e. 0.5 beds per thousand population for mental illness and 0.68 per thousand for mental subnormality (psychogeriatrics are considered separately), suggests a desirable provision of 1.2 per thousand.
For planning purposes a desirable ratio of provision for Hong Kong is taken at the lowest of these figures-1.2 per thousand population.
a.
b.
The colony is at an earlier stage of development than the developed countries referred to at 1. above.
Other countries have tended to institutionalize more patients than strictly neces- sary. For example, in England and Wales the desirable ratio is believed to be around 1.2 (assuming adequate day-bed facilities) even though present provisions exceed 2.6.
On this basis, the future bed requirements can be calculated as follows:
APPENDIX 2—(Contd.)
In Hong Kong, these levels of provision would be too high because:
a.
The Chinese race does not suffer to the extent of European races the mentally degenerative diseases of the old.
b. The Chinese family is a closer unit-although the trend is towards more European
attitudes-and is more tolerant of old age.
C.
The expectations of the community are less advanced.
Thus a suitable norm for planning purposes might be 3.0 per thousand over-65 for all geriatric patients.
Bed Requirements can therefore be forecast by calculating at this norm for the additional over-65 population; the present population will be catered for in existing chronic beds. The additional requirement is thus:
Year
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Year
:
Over-65 Population
Increase in over-65 population
Bed requirement
1972
192,400
Bed Requirements
1973
203,800
11,400
34
1974
216,100
23,700
71
1975
229,200
36,800
110
4,937
1976
242,400
50,000
150
5,022
1977
255,600
63,200
190
5,112
1978
268,700
76,300
229
5,205
1979
282,000
89,600
269
5,301
1980
295,500
103,100
309
5,401
1981
309,500
117,100
351
5,506
1982
324,100
131,700
395
5,613
5,724
5,839
5,957
G-Geriatric
No separate provision is made for Geriatric patients at present; those in hospitals are included mainly in the chronic medical cases in Government-Assisted hospitals. For this reason it is difficult to assess present discharge rates, lengths of stay, etc.
However, a sizeable further provision will undoubtedly be needed as the age structure of the population changes and the people over 65 become a greater proportion of the community:
-In 1972 the over-65 population was 192,400;
-By 1981 the number will rise to 309,500 (Census and Statistics median projection). In the U.K. the agreed desirable provision is 2.5-3.0 beds per thousand over 65 for geriatrics and 10.0 per thousand over 65 for psychogeriatrics.
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