APPENDIX 2 (Contd.)
same reasons the average stay in Government-assisted hospitals should not pro- portionately be so great as for Medical cases and should reduce from the present 21 days under the pressure of more patients. Private hospital stays tend to be slightly longer than in Government hospitals probably because of higher patient expectations.
4. Occupancy Rate. For similar reasons as those for the Medical beds the occupancy
rate is forecast as 85 per cent.
5.
Bed Requirements. Requirements for Surgical and Gynaecological patients can be calculated from the forecasts above:
d.
e.
APPENDIX 2—(Contd.)
Private hospitals proportion, currently 11 per cent and increasing, is likely to level off at 13 per cent.
Private maternity homes proportion, currently 10 per cent and decreasing rapidly, is likely to level off at about four per cent.
3. Length of stay. The current lengths of stay in hospitals are forecast to remain at about the current levels, Government 6.9 days, Government-Assisted 5.0 days, and Private 6.7 days.
Bed Requirements
Year
Government
Government-
Private
Total
Assisted
1972
2,399
1,802
625
4,816
1973
2,536
1,880
642
5,058
4.
1974
2,659
1,954
654
5,267
1975
2,787
2,028
666
5,481
1976
2,925
2,105
676
5,706
1977
3,068
2,181
687
5,936
1978
3,221
2,258
698
6,177
1979
3,383
2,335
708
6,426
5.
1980
3,552
2,412
716
6,680
1981
3,731
2,487
726
6,944
1982
3,926
2,618
764
7,308
-The average is not dissimilar to that in the better performing parts of the U.K.
e.g., six days in the Oxford Region.
-Government hospital stays are longer than Government-Assisted because of the
higher proportion of complicated cases.
-Private hospital stays are longer, probably because of higher expectations by
their patients.
The lengths of stay in Government and Private Maternity Homes which have been rising slowly are likely to rise from 3.7 and 4.0 days to 4.5 days.
Occupancy rate. Currently this is low due to over-provision of facilities, partic- ularly in maternity homes, but is likely to improve as the birth rate increases. For planning purposes a figure of 75 per cent is chosen. It is unlikely that such a figure could be exceeded because maternity cases are dominated by events of an emer- gency nature.
Bed requirements. Requirements for maternity cases can be calculated from the forecasts:
Bed Requirements
C-Maternity
1. Discharge Rate. The number of discharges and deaths depends on two factors:
a.
The number of live births which has been forecast by Census and Statistics and is expected to increase by about 40 per cent in the next 10 years.
Year
Govern- ment Hospital
Govern- ment Assisted Hospitals
Govern- Private ment Hospitals Maternity
Homes
Private Maternity Total
Homes
b. The number of discharges per live birth which has risen steadily over the past years but is now expected to level off at 1.2. This is marginally higher than in the U.K. where the figure has been 1.17 for many years because in the U.K. only 90 per cent of births are in hospital.
1972...
738
631
200
264
145
1,978
1973...
813
675
202
300
106 2,096
1974...
908
696
215
344
66
2,229
2.
Distribution. The proportions of patients in the various hospital types has shown some marked changes in recent years and the trends are expected to continue:
1975...
963
718
230
357
70
2,338
1976...
1,004
749
246
373
74 2,446
a.
b.
-Despite the introduction of meals for patients the homes are still underutilized.
Where such facilities are already provided, more are unlikely to be built.
Government-assisted proportion is likely to remain at the current 35 per cent.
C.
58
Government maternity homes proportion, currently 15 per cent, will fall to about 14 per cent.
Government hospitals proportion, currently 30 per cent, is expected to increase to 34 per cent.
1977...
1,046
781
262
389
77
2,555
1978...
1,088
811
280
404
81
2,664
1979...
1,129
842
297
418
85
2,771
1980...
1,169
872
313
433
89 2,876
1981...
1,210
902
325
450
93
2,980
1982...
1,253
935
336
465
96 3,085
59