(iv) Pupil nursing auxiliary wastage has varied between 10% and 80% during the two-year course. On average the rates are 18% p.a.
80. Further requirements. On the basis of these figures there is a current shortfall of 3,632 (paragraph 75)-3,362 (paragraph 76)=270 nurses which will rise to 501 by 1982. For psychiatric nurses the current shortfall is 1,304-343-961. By 1982 if the fairly optimistic recruitment figures can be achieved, this will fall to 645. The position is set out in more detail in the following two tables:
POTENTIAL STAFF SHORTFALL—(1) 'NURSES' AND (2) GENERAL NURSES WITH NURSING AUXILIARIES
Available Staff
Year
Trained
Student
nurses
nurses
equivalent
Nursing Auxiliary
Pupil Total N.A. equivalent equivalent Nurses
(1)
Forecast Potential Potential Need Shortfall Shortfall
(2)*
1972
2,050
586
186
119
2,941
3,632
691
270
1973
2,127
692
250
121
3,190
! 3,923
733
337
1974
2,199
836
313
123
3,471
1975
4,106
635
263
2,328
922
375
124
3,749
4,459
710
360
1976
2,504
960
435
126
4,025
4,690
665
336
1977
2,714
961
494
128
4,297
1978
4,908
611
302
2,911
961
552
128
4,552
1979
3,096
5,154
602
312
961
609
129
4,795
1980
5,384
589
315
3,270
961
665
130
5,026
5,640
614
358
1981
3,434
961
720
131
5,246
1982
5,922
676
435
3,588
961
774
132
5,455
6,183
728
501
* Taking account of 421 midwives, student midwives and health visitors included in the staffing ratios.
POTENTIAL STAFF SHORTFALL-PSYCHIATRIC NURSES
WITH NURSING AUXILIARIES
Available Staff
Year
Trained Student
Nurses
Nurses equivalent
Nursing Auxiliary
Pupil N.A. equivalent
Total equivalent
Forecast Potential Need Shortfall
nurses
1972
218
74
34
17
343
1,304
961
1973
234
74
64
27
1974
399
1,332
933
249
75
92
36
452
1,367
915
1975
261
97
118
44
523
1,396
873
1976
278
137
142
36
613
1977
1,433
820
291
173
164
66
694
1978
1,465
771
322
190
190
69
771
1979
1,503
732
369
190
214
72
845
1980
1.554
709
414
191
236
74
1981
915
1,590
675
456
192
256
76
1982
980
1,638
658
496
193
275
77
1,041
1,686
645
81. A word of warning is necessary about the results shown in these tables. Since auxiliaries are included in the staffing ratios the position with regard to general nurse requirements (properly speaking) and psychiatric nurse requirements (properly speaking) is not as clear- cut as may be desirable. With regard to the psychiatric side this is of no great importance. The shortfall figures show a falling trend, and this, combined with the information on spare training capacity in paragraph 78, indicates that additional training capacity is not called for. On the general side the position is the opposite. The shortfall figures show a rising trend, and that the position will be getting out of hand in spite of expansion of the intakes of the two existing general nurses training schools to maximum capacity in May 1973.
82. Using departmental figures of general nurse staff required to fill existing vacancies, estimates of the requirement for projects already under way or already approved, and of the requirement for the pro- grammes outlined in Chapters 3 and 4 (and considering also the needs of the subsequent decade) the conclusion reached by the Committee is that a third general nurses' training school has become inevitable, and that planning for one, to take three annual intakes of 50 to 70 students each should begin as soon as possible. A site is available adjacent to the Princess Margaret Hospital. The estimated, present, non-recurrent cost of a school taking 50 students per intake is $7.5 million, with a recurrent cost of $400,000 p.a. Approximately 5 years from the start of planning, student nurses would become available for training in hospital wards and so would be making their contribution as working hands by about the end of 1978.
83. It is relevant here to mention, in view of paragraph 77 and of the very large numbers of student nurse candidates that will be required for three general nurse training schools, that fairly recently the qualifica- tion required of a candidate has been raised from School Certificate/ General Certificate of Education with English and Chinese (5 passes in all) to G.C.E. with English, Chinese and two science subjects (5 passes in all). In view of the future nurse requirement the Committee feels some concern about the effect on recruitment of stipulating two science subjects as obligatory, and is of the opinion that these might with advantage be regarded as preferably included in a candidate's qualifica- tions, rather than as mandatory.
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