62. The combined totals for Government hospitals, clinics, and administration are therefore:
Year
Doctors
Psychiatric Doctors
Total
POTENTIAL STAFF SHORTFALL-DOCTORS
Year
12 per cent Wastage
Forecast recruits
Net Staff
Forecast Need
Potential Shortfall
Increment
1972 ...
1972
808
861
53
768
93
861
1973 ...
1973
97
105
816
912
96
816
96
912
1974 ...
861
1974
98
125
843
960
117
99
960
1975 ...
900
102
1975
101
125
867
1,002
1,002
135
1976 ...
941
105
1,046
1976
104
125
888
1,046
158
1977 ...
980
108
1,088
1977
107
125
906
1,088
182
1978 ...
1,023
112
1,135
1978
109
125
922
1,136
214
1979
1,073
117
1,190
13
2 2 2 2 2 9
43
21
18
23
24
32
40
1980 ...
1979
111
125
936
1,190
254
1,113
120
1,233
30
1981 ...
1982 ...
1980
112
125
949
1,233
284
:
1,163
125
1,288
44
:
1,214
1981
114
125
960
130
1,288
328
1,344
46
1982
115
125
970
1,344
374
63. In the spring of 1973 there were 680 Government doctors, from Assistant Medical and Health Officer upwards. In addition there were 128 housemen, which gives a total of 808.
64. Recruitment is mainly from the Hong Kong medical school, which has had an intake of 120 students per year, now increased to 150. Of these new doctors, Government recruits about 70 per cent. Doctors are also recruited from overseas into the Government service but typically the number is not above 20 a year.
65.
Wastage rates fluctuate from year to year, the average for 1969-72 being about 12 per cent per annum.
66. Further requirements. On the basis of these figures there is a current shortfall of 861 808 53 doctors. This is less than the vacancy position in June 1973 of about 155, the difference being explained by attempted recruitment in advance of need for the new Princess Margaret Hospital. The shortfall will increase to 374 doctors by 1982 as shown in the following table:
28
If it is assumed that the number of doctors specializing in psychiatry increases at about the present average of two per year the 1982 shortfalls would be:
General doctors
292
82
Psychiatric doctors
374 To
•
67. What these figures indicate is that during the next ten years the average annual increment between the supply of doctors for the Govern- ment service and the need will be or about 40. This shortfall can be assumed to continue in the decade 1983-92, and probably get worse. Since it would be unreasonable to suppose that from now onwards Government will be able to recruit 40 Cantonese-speaking doctors from abroad annually, the indication is for a local source of supply that by 1982 is able to produce 80 annually, 40 to meet the shortfalls of 1973-82 and 40 to meet the needs of 1983-92. Since as pointed out in paragraph 64, the private sector takes 30% of the product of the present local source of supply it would be reasonable to adjust this figure of supply to 100 when considering the needs of the Colony as a whole.
29