CONFIDENTIAL #2
21
Chapter 7
HOSPITALS
7.1
It is possible by means of a formula to calculate the
expected requirements for the various types of hospital beds, in the
light of expected population growth and of changes in the pattern
of disease. The formula adopted by the MDAC (which they set out
in paragraph 8 of their report) brings together for each kind of
medical specialty the size of the population (or where appropriate,
the size of a particular section of the population), discharge
rates, the distribution of patients between the various kinds of
hospital, the length of time patients stay in hospital and the
bed occupancy rate. The Committee did not consider waiting list
figures sufficiently significant to be incorporated.
7.2
The
The data used in applying such a formula necessarily
involves some forward projection of the changes expected in the
various factors and in the pattern of disease. It requires a
fairly sophisticated level of data collection and analysis.
Government has accepted the MDAC view that there is room for
improvement in the statistical base in certain areas (in relation
for example to the relative requirements for acute and non-acute beds) and in line with the MDAC recommendation, the Statistical
Unit of the Medical and Health Department has been augmented.
Forecast requirements for hospital beds
G. F. 323
7.3
On the basis however of the data available, and using
the approach described above, the Committee found that to meet
expected patient requirements there should be 27,495 hospital
beds in Hong Kong by 1982; this, given the medium population
forecast of 4.96 million at that date, converts to produce a
requirement for a colony-wide planning ratio of 5.5 beds per
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