CONFIDENTIAL
L. they
The key to Golden Triangle opium lies in Burma, but the chaotic imbroglio of insurgency allied to arms, gem and opium smuggling in vast regions of the country largely beyond the control of the Rangoon Government, particularly east of the Salween River where most of the opium is grown, makes Burma a very hard nut to crack; the more so on account of Burma's closed door policy. A United Nations Mission from the Division at Geneva is in Burma now. to follow up the concept of launching a Country Programme, primarily involving opium crop substitution similar in nature to the UN/Thai Project, but even if the U.N. succeeds in making a start in a few pacified areas, which must be doubtful, its effort will not be able to make any perceptible impact upon unlawful opium growth and the illicit traffic flowing from it into Thailand.
The opium crop substitution segment of the UN/Thai Country Programme, its main element, is only at a pilot experimental stage. It is running into a multitude of substantial obstacles of one sort and another, not least being the current attractiveness of opium growing on account of its high market value due to increasing law enforcement pressure forcing up prices. This programme so far (it has been going just over two years) has had only the most minimal effect in reducing illicit opium growth. At best it is a very long term project which cannot eradicate opium production in the country to a meaningful degree in under twenty to thirty years, even under the most favourable conditions. The chances of it failing in its ultimate purpose, or even collapsing altogether, are fairly high in my view. My belief is that the Thais do not really have their heart in it despite the lip service they offer no doubt in part due to the King's personal close interest and the compulsive influence of American leverage.
Laos today does not appear to be a major opium producer, but it is a transit country for some drug caravans from Burma moving to Thailand and perhaps to South Vietnam, The United Nations has just completed a Mission there with a view to taking over and improving upon the opium crop substi- tution and connected projects begun by the Americans under their Aid Programme. I gather from Peter Law that the Laotian Government was receptive to the Mission notwithstanding the former's Pathet Lao dominance. But Laos today is an enigma, a key pawn on the Indo-China chessboard. What its ultimate future will be no one can guess, but there is no valid reason to believe that opium crop substitution projects will do better in this country than elsewhere, though backed by ruthless communist dictatorship in the Pathet Lao zone I suppose could prosper dramatically given the right degree of impetus from the top.