6

18.

The heroin situation however is more serious, and supplies are said to be very low. The main retail syndicates are still operating at Western, Shaukiwan, Kowloon Walled City, Li Cheng UK,

Tsuen Wan and Ngau Tam Mei; stocks are variously estimated as being sufficient for 6-10 days. In the notorious Ma Shan area there is virtually no large-scale selling.

19. exist.

The illicit market in morphine has virtually ceased to Brokers are offering as much as $12,500 per lb., but there are no supplies; nor are any imports expected for the foreseeable future. At the moment facilities do not exist for large-scale manufacture of heroin from morphine; the syndicates are in disarray and are not operating refineries, and only a very few known freelance chemists remain in the Colony, One NB target is known to have tried to set up a heroin refinery within the past week or so; his first efforts at production however proved unsuccessful and the heroin was unmarket- able. He may make another attempt, and he is being kept under investig- ation should this prove to be the case,

20.

The Methadone Maintenance clinics operated by the Medical and Health Department report an increasing demand for their services. The former average of 2-3 new voluntary patients per week has in the last few weeks increased to 6-10; over the same period the waiting

It is noticeable list for treatment has increased from 200 to over 500. too that an increasing number of former patients who dropped out of the treatment are returning for help. It is clear therefore that the effect of the shortage and of the rising prices is being felt at street level; should the trend continue Methadone clinics and hospitals may well find themselves unable to cope with the numbers of addicts seeking help.

The Future

21.

It would be most unwise to imagine that in the space of a few weeks, Hong Kong's drug problem has been defeated; the demand for narcotics remains, and therefore it is certain that the supply will be reorganised. However in what form and by whom, are still matters for conjecture.

22.

It is not clear how long the syndicates will take to recover from their recent blows; perhaps they will not reappear in the form we have known from the past. However as drug stocks dwindle prices will rise, end so will the profits; newcomers will therefore emerge who are prepared to take the increased risks of importation. It may well be that they will come from the ranks of the existing

The principal syndicates, simply moving up to fill vacant spaces, difficulty in their way would appear to be one of finance; few traffickers can afford the colossal expense necessary to organise the Thai trawler-loads of recent years. We may therefore see the introduction of much smaller, and therefore less expensive, amounts of narcotics shipped from Thailand; and if smaller amounts are involved, it becomes possible to utilise air freight as opposed to seaborne transport.

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