L..
in which Hong Kong are already locked into very
arge programmes of social betterment, and where the budget will be in deficit even after further tax increases and recourse to borrowing. But the Governor has also made the political point that, should it appear that in future the UK were not prepared to pay at all for the defence of Hong Kong, people there (including the Chinese Government) would deduce that the UK no longer had any interest in the Colony and that the commitment to its future had been abandoned. He would see real danger in this. His considered advice is that it might make all the difference between the ability of the Police and Garrison to deter a challenge to law and order, and having to intervene to restore it.
5.
These recommendations accord with the advice of the Ministry of Defence and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, though further refinement of options has suggested that the range of choices is somewhat wider than is suggested by the Governor, bot as to the composition of the force and as to its cost.
A separate paper on these options is attached.
6.
The Governor has suggested that a llong Kong contribution of £17 million should be presented as 50% of the cost of the garrison, and that this should dictate the choice of the option of a smaller force with reinforcement capability. But it might be bette to negotiate this as a flat contribution not tied to a percentage. This would perait a logical choice on military grounds between the various force options It would also avoid argument about the exact content and costing of the force. If the Hong Kong Government undertook to pay a fixed percentage of the total, they would certainly wish, for example, to have a direct say in the nature of any reinforcement facilities and in the balance between British troops and the cheaper Gurkha units.
7.
An alternative to accepting that about £17 million is likely to be the limit of the Hong Kong contribution, might be a substantial UK development aid programme, designed to bring Hong Kong
/social
SECRET
NOTHING TO BE WRITTEN IN THIS MARGIN