JU
* WOULD BE FEASIBLE IF THE RESULTANT
FIGURE PLACED A BURDEN OF MORE THAN POUNDS STERLING-17M. A YEAR ON THE HONG KONG BUDGET (SEE PARA 7 BELOW).
5. THE IMPLICATIONS OF PARAS 1, 2 AND 3 TAKEN TOGETHER ARE THAT
THE POSSIBILITIES WOULD BE:
:
A) AS IN 1(A) WITH THE HMG/HK SPLIT AT 21/17 IN POUNDS STERLING M.: AND (B) AS IN 1(B) WITH THE SPLIT AT 17/17.
6. WHILE SECURITY-WISE I WOULD PREFER (A), PARTICULARLY IN VIEW OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHO WILL RULE CHINA AND WITH
WHAT EXTERNAL POLICIES IN THE PERIOD TO WHICH A NEW DEFENCE COSTS AGREEMENT WILL APPLY, PROFESSIONAL ADVICE WOULD ACCEPT . (B), THOUGH. WITH RELUCTANCE. I TOO MUST ADMIT TO SOME SCEPTICISM ABOUT THE VALUE OF REINFOCEMENT. BUT (B) HAS THE PRESENTATIONAL VALUE OF THE CONCEPT OF A 50/50 SPLIT WITH THE RESULTANT HALVING OF HMG'S CONTRIBUTION AND THE DOUBLING OF HONG KONG'S, WHICH IS BOTH TIDY AND COMPREHENSIBLE. IT MIGHT ALSO BE RATHER MORE
FAVOURABLE TO THE MOD VOTE THAN THE FIGURES SUGGEST, SINCE THE FIGURS OF COST ARE NOTIONAL, WHEREAS THOSE OF HONG KONG'S CONTRIBUTION WOULD BE ACTUAL.
•
7. THE FIGURE OF POUNDS STERLING 17M. A YEAR AS THE MAXIMUM THAT
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL AND FINANCE COMMITTEE WOULD AGREE TO FOR HONG
KONG'S CONTRIBUTION IS SIMPLY MY JUDGEMENT, AND INEVITABLY CONTAINS
A LARGE ELEMENT OF SUBJECTIVITY. BUT IT IS MADE AGAINST THE BACKGROUD
OF A BUDGETARY SITUATION IN WHICH OVER THE NEXT 1, 2, 5, AND 10. YEAR PERIODS. WE ARE ALREADY LOCKED IN TO VERY LARGE PROGRAMMES
OF SOCIAL BETTERMENT WHICH WILL BRING THE BUDGET
BEARILY INTO DEFICIT. THIS IS EVEN AFTER TAKING ACCOUNT OF TAX
INCREASES THIS YEAR AND OF FURTHER INCREASES ENVISAGED FOR NEXT
YEAR, AND ALSO OF RECOURSE TO BORROWING. THE POSSIBILITY OF
SWAPPING BETWEEN DIFFERENT VOTES IS LIMITED BY THE OBVIOUS
OBJECTION TO ANY SIGNIFICANT SUBSTITUTION OF MILITARY FOR SOCIAL
EXPENDITURE IN A COMMUNITY.AS POOR AND UNDER-PROVIDED AS THIS.. I MIGHT ADD THAT I WAS SHOCKED BY REMARKS MADE PERHAPS HALF IN
JEST (THOUGH OBVIOUSLY WHOLLY IN IGNORANCE) WHEN I WAS LAST IN LONDON TO THE EFFECT THAT HONG KONG QUOTE HAD MONEY RUNNING OUT OF ITS EARS UNQUOTE.
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