SECRET
by the Government of Belize
would provoke a
Guatemalan
invasion, and that to grant Belize independence would provoke a war which we could win only by making a major military effort and antagonising the United States as well as all Latin American Governments.
an
Unless we can reach a political settlement with Guatemala (a goal which has eluded us despite strengthy efforts over the past two decades) we are faced with an indefinite commitment to defend Belize as a Dependent Territory. It is anomaly that we should be maintaining a military force in central America in the late twentie th century. If we were to withdraw our forces before long eg before the end of the decade, we would have to be prepared for early negotiations with the Guatemalans designed to secure the best possible terms for the Belizians; this could involve substantial and political difficult concessions.
a This would require political directive followed by
a period of high level and sustained negotiation. Ministers may wish to instruct officials to consider the matter further and submit recommendations in due course. West Indies
But
OPD (74) 23 does not mention the West Indies, and there is no need for the Secretary of State to raise the subject, earlier studies by officials envisaged the possibility that we would not in future station ships permanently in West Indies. If the subject is raised, the Secretary of State could say that these ships:
a. are able to intervene quickly to preserve internal
security in the dependent territories or to provide
emergency relief in the area:
b. have on several occasions in the past had a steadying
influence on the political and security situation in the West Indies Associated States;
are able to intervene quickly to protect and evacuate "UK belongers" from the Associated States and dependent territories;
A
8
/a. would