عار
fact that Ministers will not only want to announce their Defence Review decisions in some detail in February: MOD are suggesting that they should make some general statement about their intentions before consultations start. This would be designed to mitigate the effect of any leaks during the consultations. The latter point is perhaps more important in the NATO context than for the non-NATO commitments, and broadly speaking, we shall presumably want to ensure that no initial statement goes into detail about our hopes as regards non-NATO commitments. But we should also presumably put Ministers on notice as soon as possible if there are any cases in which the need for possibly drawn negotiations to secure our withdrawal might preclude anything being said in February. ei ther. Mauritius and Brunei are presumably cases in point.
Hong Kong
5.
There seem to be no particular problems here. Formal consultations with the Hong Kong Government can start as soon as our consultations with the Americans are over, or if necessary as soon as the Americans have been told about our broad intentions as regards Hong Kong.
Oman
6.
long
If anything is to be announced in the Defence Review we may be hard pressed to conclude consultations with the Iranians and the Saudi Arabians and then negotiations with the Sultan by February. Cound the consultations with the Iranians and Saudi Arabians take place simultaneously?
CENTO
7.
We should presumably try to speak simultaneously to all our CENTO allies. We could presumably speak to the Shah about CENTO at the same time as we speak to him about Oman.
Cyprus
8.
It is presumably too early to say anything about the pattern and timing of any consultations with the Cypriots, Greeks and Turks.
Malta
9.
We shall need to consult the NATO allies who contribute to the rent to Mintoff before we speak to Mintoff himself, We do not, at present, plan to consult these NATO allies about NATO matters in general until about the beginning of December. It could be unwise to try tackling them separately about Malta in advance of this. Would two months be enough time to consult both NATO allies and Mintoff about our proposal to start running down in 1977? If not, should we try to persuade Ministers that at this stage all we need clear with them is our intention not to renew the Agreement when it expires in 1979?
SECRET
/ 10.