SECRET
4. IF I WAS NOT SQUEEZED BETWEEN H.M.G.'S DECISION TO PAY NO MORE THAN 25% AND THE BUDGETARY AND POLITICAL POSSIBILITIES HERE (WHICH SUGGEST A CEILING OF ABOUT £17M FOR HONG KONG) I WOULD CERTAINLY PREFER TO RETAIN A GARRISON OF THE PRESENT SIZE, 1.E. 6 2/3 MAJOR UNITS THE M O D CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HONG KONG'S NEEDS WITHOUT A REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITY'' AS SET OUT IN C D S'S SIGNAL OF 23 SEPTEMBER. BUT AS THINGS STAND I HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO RECOMMEND SOMETHING MORE ALONG THE LINES OF OPTION ''C'' IN C B F'S ORIGINAL PAPER (PARA 1(B) OF MY TEL 853), I.E. 5 1/3 MAJOR UNITS. IF FURTHER ECONOMIES COULD BE FOUND IN THIS BRINGING THE TOTAL DOWN TO ABOUT £30M A YEAR WE WOULD BE GETTING NEARER SOMETHING THAT WAS A VIABLE POLITICAL AND BUDGETARY PROPOSITION.
5. FOR MY PART I THINK THAT HAVING REGARD TO:
(A) THE FORESEEABLE SITUATION VIS-A-VIS CHINA, AND
(B) THE POSSIBILITY OF REINFORCEMENT DESCRIBED IN PARA 3 OF
YOUR TEL 835
THIS WOULD BE JUSTIFIABLE (JUST) FOR HONG KONG IN PRESENT
CIRCUMSTANCES.
6. HOWEVER, UNDERSTANDABLY, C B F DOES NOT AGREE WITH THIS, AND IN ANY CASE I PRESUME HE IS BOUND BY THE TERMS OF C D S SIGNAL. I THEREFORE SUGGEST THAT YOU NOW DISCUSS FURTHER WITH M O D WITH A VIEW TO RECONSIDERATION OF THE LEVEL OF GARRISON THEY WOULD BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT. WE CANNOT TAKE THINGS FURTHER HERE UNTIL
THIS IS CLEARED UP.
MACLEHOSE
FILE S
HD/HKIOD
!
HD/DEFENCE DEPT
PS
PS/LORD GORONWY ROBERTS PS/PUS
SIR D WATSON
MR THOMSON
MR WILFORD MR MALE
:
COPIES TO:
2.
SECRET
MR HOCKADAY MR SMITH,
MOD CABINET OFFICE