THE THREAT
ANNEX A TO 6000 HQBF
DATED
2 JUL 74
CHINA
1. Predicting the future is never easy, particularly where China is concerned. It is difficult enough to know what is happening in China at this moment, let alone to forecast what will happen there in the future after Mao and Chou have gone; for the situation could change in a remarkably short space of time and it would be imprudcnt not to recognise this in making long terms plans.
2.
Even looking on the bright side, and assuming that there will be a continuation of China's present pragmatic and moderate policy of apparently not wanting to take over Hong Kong by force of arms, it must be recognised that China is bound to exploit Hong Kong for economic and political profit, and to try, by all legal and semi-legal means, to associate herself with, and ingratiate herself into, the life, economy and institutions of the Colony. Moreover, she may well try to do this in such a way that it could one day be difficult for the Hong Kong Government to do anything to have any flexibility at all, without the tacit approval of China. This is the gist of a recent assessment by the Hong Kong Special Branch.
3.
In the very long term this state of affairs may be both inevitable and not necessarily undesirable, but in the short term the implications are obvious. The UK and the people of Hong Kong presumably want to continue to use Hong Kong to the advantage of those who have helped to build it up, to the advantage of those living here and to the advantage of the UK and indeed of many other friendly trading nations. The Hong Kong Government must therefore maintain a significant degree of freedom of action without which it can never hold up its head, never consider itself independent and indeed, never generate the very confidence and prosperity which is so essential for the continued peaceful progress of the place. It has, therefore, to ensure that while having friendly, adult and sensible relations with China, its freedom of action and authority is not eroded prematurely and unacceptably. The Government will sensibly never be provocative to China; equally it must never be pushed around. Moreover, a disturbed internal security situation must be avoided at all costs because apart from hampering prosperity it would provide China with a ready made excuse to intervene legitimately.
A2
SECRET
S: BET