c.
d.
Mass illegal immigration from China.
A deliberate attack by the Chinese Army. (This can be regarded as well below the first three in terms of likelihood, because in the present climate of mutual' self interest it would be rather pointless).
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ROLE OF BRITISH FORCES
6. Against a background of these threats, three of the existing roles (paragraphs 7, 8 and 9) for the British Forces still seem to be wholly valid and relevant. The fourth (paragraph 10) must clearly carry less weight at the present time in a critical analysis such as this, but might have to be reconsidered, in due course, if the political situation was to change radically.
7.
Almost certainly the most important reason for British Forces being in Hong Kong is to help demonstrate unmistakably that Britain intends to maintain, for the foreseeable future, the status quo in Hong Kong and that the 'Mandate of Heaven' is remaining where it is now with the British Governor and his appointed Government. The confidence that springs from this is clearly a great stabilising factor in any economic endeavours.
8.
The next main role is to be ready and to be seen to be ready to aid the Civil Government and Police in maintaining law and order. This role too contributes to stability and confidence because it helps to provide the conditions in which commerce and industry can make long term plans and take calculated risks.
9. The third role, which is a continuing one, is to act as a deterrent to any erosion of the Hong Kong Government's authority and freedom of action along the Border and in the coastal areas, and to deal, in cooperation with the Police, with any unacceptably large scale of immigration or armed incursion.
10. Finally, in the happily remote possibility of direct aggression, the British Forces would be expected to do their duty to identify the aggression and offer such resistance as was practicable and appropriate in the circumstances and in the light of political direction.
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ALLOCATION OF FORCES TO TASKS
MILITARY PRESENCE
11. This is very difficult to quantify. Rong Kong's future depends not of course on any military power we can provide
This but on mutual self interest between China and Hong Kong. however, is in itself dependent on continuing prosperity and growth in the Colony and on a comparatively peaceful internal security situation; and British Forces help to provide that degree of confidence and stability which makes these things possible. The Royal Navy has a particulai part to play in this role.