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consultations with the Americans about-our

Em tūris

position-there, Subject to international considerations, some public indication by HMC that the matter was under active consideration might also become appropriate before long.

(ii) Five Power Defence Arrangements

It is arguable that Ministers have broadly decided already that our presence in Singapore should be reduced to the absolute minimum (though the acceptable minimum is not yet defined), that our partners in the Five Power Defence Arrangements are expecting severe cuts in our forces, and that a further round of consultations with them could therefore go ahead after discussions as nec- cssary with the Americans. However, the

Americans will see arrangements in Singapore as being relevant to our arrangements for the Indian Ocean as a whole, and they will find it difficult to talk usefully about them in isolation. The Indian Ocean is one of the most important of the non NATO areas for the Americans, and they may hold particularly strong views about our intentions there which could prolong consultations with them. We have already had indications, for example, that they hope we will not give up our maritime reconnaissance effort in the Indian Ocean and even that they might be prepared to contribute financially to residual British activity in Singapore. They will also want to know what our intentions are about Gan, Mauritius and Masirah, which we cannot say until the delicate question of Diego Garcia has been more clearly resolved on both sides

of the Atlantic. Serious difficulties in

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