Reference.....
CONFIDENTIAL
596
Mr Thomson
DEFENCE REVIEW HONG KONG
1.
The points relevant to Hong Kong within the framework of your minute and of Mr Cable's are as follows:
(a)
The Hong Kong garrison of 6+ major units and a guardship is there partly for internal security reasons; partly to maintain confidence in the future of Hong Kong; partly as a token deterrent to ill-considered Chinese aggression.
and
(b) A reduction of the force, but not its
removal, would probably make sense for the first of these requirements. The present garrison is almost certainly too large for a purely internal security role in Hong Kong. Similarly it should be possible to reduce the force without affecting confidence in Hong Kong, provided that it is done with great tact and care in full consultation with the Governor and his advisers. It might be necessary, at least initially, to leave the full headquarters establishment including a Lieutenant General in order to reduce the visual impact of any cuts. But since the Hong Kong defence agreement provides that the removal of more than one major unit would trigger off a re-negotiation of the agreement it would not be possible to achieve any significant reduction without substantial public debate. This would be a danger point in Hong Kong if cuts in fact came into force on the ground before Spring 1976 when the present defence agreement expires. Vis-à-vis China, a reduction might have little effect on our relationship or on Chinese intentions towards Hong Kong. Given that the existing force could not stop the Chinese Army the removal of part of it would make no difference in kind to the situation.
(c)
If any question of total withdrawal from Hong Kong arose we would probably conclude that we must disengage from our administra- tion of Hong Kong within the relatively near future. But if only a proportionate cut was made, there should be no need to review our commitments.
(a) Consequential problems. If the Hong Kong
garrison was substantially reduced this would bring the whole future of the Gurkhas into question, since this is their main base.
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CONFIDENTTAT
/This would