SECRET
68.
These risks would of course be avoided if it were possible to persuade the Guatemalans to drop their claim, or at least to · undertake not to pursue it by force. But although renewed nego- tiations with the Guatemalans are in prospect, we are not hopeful that they will lead to early agreement on this basis.
69. If it were decided to withdraw the garrison, the only way in which HMG could simultaneously rid itself of the commitment would
This would be an unprece- be to impose independence on Belize.
dented course of action, and if, as is very likely, the imposition of independence were immediately followed by a Guatemalan takeover, there would again be very strong criticism of HMG both in the UK and abroad. It should also be borne in mind that between the announcement that independence was to be imposed and final with- drawal, there would almost certainly be internal security problems which would necessitate the strengthening of the garrison in this interim period. However,
However, if this course were followed HMG would not be formally reneging on a commitment.
CONCLUSION: BELIZE
70.
a) If it were decided to withdraw the garrison, we should, before making any public announcement, make a final effort to negotiate a settlement with Guatemala; however, such a negotiation (which is already in contem- plation) is unlikely to succeed.
b)
If after the failure of negotiations with Guatemala, we went ahead with withdrawal, there is virtually nothing which could be done to avoid the odium which HMG would incur both in the UK and abroad in the event of a Guate-
malan takeover.
THE FALKLAND ISLANDS AND ANTARCTICA
71.
The garrison in the Falklands is of no real military signi- ficance, since it would not be able to hold the Falklands until the arrival of reinforcements if there were a concerted Argentinian armed attack. However, its political significance is considerable, and if it were withdrawn, this would increase the risk of Argentinian incursion, and could lead to a disproportionate outcry
in the UK.
SECRET
/72.
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