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A decision substantially to reduce the garrison could thus bring into question the future of the Brigade of Gurkhas whose main base is Hong Kong. The disbandment would in turn pose the question of
whether:
(a)
additional British forces should be deployed, or
(b) a reinforcement capability from the UK should be
maintained.
against China
11. On (b) since Hong Kong is indefensible there is no requirement
for reinforcement on grounds of deliberate external attack. If the garrison is maintained at the existing level the requirement might be limited to moving forces on rotation or for training. This might be achieved by staging through civilian airports or by the "Westabout route". But a substantial reduction could give rise to a need to consider a reinforcement capability to compensate for the greater
risk involved in a smaller garrison. These issues would have a bearing on the future of the East-about reinforcement route (and thus for the future of Gan etc).
12.
The Hong Kong Government at present makes a defence contribution of an average of £8 million per annum. The Memorandum of Under- standing which covers this expires in 1976 and a new understanding would be necessary in the light of any decision to change the present level of the garrison; There is strong feeling in the colony on the level of the defence contribution.
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13. Any hint that HMG were preparing to reduce the size of the garrison could have a grave effect on confidence in Hong Kong and it is thus essential that there should be no public reference to it.
CONCLUSION:
14.
HONG KONG
The first requirement is thus to consult the Governor and Commander British Forces in strict confidence on whether the present garrison can be reduced; we should also need their views on the timing and form of any withdrawal if they were prepared to contem- plate it or if Ministers were to decide on it in spite of the greater risks involved.
BRIGADE OF GURKHAS/NEPAL
1
15. If as a consequence of a decision to reduce the garrison in Hong Kong, or otherwise, a decision were taken to disband the Brigade of Gurkhas, consultation with the Government of Nepal would
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