SECRET
If it were decided that a reduction of this magni-
tude was required, how much effect would it have on
the ability of HM Forces to control a difficult
internal security situation? If such control could
not be guaranteed, what reduction short of a half
would be tolerable?
4. Critical factors in averting any crisis of confidence will be presentation, timing and the
phasing of withdrawal. How should we set about presenting information about the cuts? Ministers
have already indicated that there will be consult-
ation before any final decisions are made. When should any announcement be made? Over what period
should the troop withdrawals be phased in order to
present them in the most palatable way?
5.
Bearing in mind the considerations above, what
are the implications for the Hong Kong Defence Review contribution? If the contribution was kept
at the present level it would cover a higher prop-
ortion of a lower total cost. Would an absolute
increase in the contribution also be negotiable?
If higher contributions are negotiable this could
even affect the size of the cuts in the garrison.
6. What effect would a substantial reduction of
our military presence in Hong Kong have on our relations with China?
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