(b)
withdrawal of the Guard ship (though not the RN patrol vessels) but continuance of naval visits.
If it were decided that a reduction of this magnitude was required, how much effect would it have on the ability of HM Forces to control a difficult internal security situation? Presumably political as well as military considerations would be involved. If the reduction by a half is not tolerable, what lesser reduction would be?
5.
be phased in order to
6.
Critical factors in averting any crisis of confidence will be presentation, timing and the phasing of withdrawal. How should we set about presenting information about the cuts? Ministers have already indicated that there will be consultation before any final decisions are made. How can this best be done? When should any announcement be made? Over what period should the troop withdrawals
present them in the most palatable way? Bearing in mind the considerations above, what are the implications for the Hong Kong Defence contribution? If the contribution were kept at the present level it would cover a higher proportion of a lower total cost but, of course, it now covers a much lower proportion than when it was originally negotiated. Would an absolute increase in the contribution also be negotiable? If higher contributions are negotiable, this might even affect the
size of the cuts in the garrison.
7.
What effect would a substantial reduction of our military presence in Hong Kong have on our relations with China?
t
Hong Kong & Indian Ocean Dept.
22 May 1974
SECRET
}