SECRET
SECRET UK EYES A
under way since 1972/3 and some £50m has already been spent on it.
Cancellation of the project would mean that our Polaris missiles
could no longer be certain of penetrating Soviet ABM defences
throughout the existing life of the submarines; and, although our
ability to threaten undefended cities within range would remain,
our ultimate determination to go to the limit in confronting the
USSR would be in question and the main reason. for possessing a
strategic deterrent negated. The British Polaris force is an
insurance against the worst situation, namely a break up of NATO
or the loss of credibility of the US guarantee. It is also
recognised in a number of Allied quarters as increasing the credibility
of the overall NATO deterrent by introducing a separate centre
of decision making in Europe. Its abandonment would leave France
as the only West European power with a strategic deterrent, and
would involve the abandonment of a major force (including capital
investment) that still has two-thirds of its life remaining. It is
unlikely that SSBN's could be redeployed effectively in other roles
e.g. as SSN's.
141. The second alternative
scrapping the force would save
running costs averaging £50m a year and some marginal infrastructure
costs. It would also save improvement costs as indicated in
paragraph 140 above.
Cancellation of LANCE
142. The cancellation of the collaborative purchase of the US LANCE
surface to surface missile system would save at the most some £40m.
Loss of LANCE would mean that 1 (BR) Corps would not possess a tactical
nuclear missile capability, which would severely strain the Alliance's
current flexible-response strategy; the gap would have to be filled
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