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would be reduced in the second phase.
Although the Alliance has
not yet discussed how the 48,000 would be distributed among the
allied countries concerned the British share (assuming that the
reductions were divided in proportion to the size of allied countries'
existing forces in the area) would be between 4,000 and 5,000.
70. The allies have not proposed a timetable for MBFR reductions.
If a first phase agreement were signed by early 1975 and negotiations
on the second phase started almost immediately thereafter, reductions
of European forces, and thus the withdrawal of British forces, might
be implemented in 1976 at the earliest.
71. There is of course no guarantee that the MBFR negotiations will
succeed at all, let alone any certainty about what their eventual
result and timetable will be. Some members of the Alliance, eg the
Dutch and Germans, are already planning to restructure their forces
on the assumption that they will be associated with cuts through
MBFR. A similar assumption is being m de, for planning purposes, for
Ministers will have to decide how any such assumption must
the UK.
reductions in BACR
be conditional on the success of the negotiations:
implemented unilaterally, outside the MBFR framework, would prejudice
the chances of achieving a satisfactory agreement in the negotiations
and would be resented by our allies. We have in company with our
allies pledged not to make unilateral reductions and the US
Administration has based itself on such a pledge in resisting the
Mansfield proposals for unilateral US reductions. The Dutch have
recently given an assurance that any ground force reductions will be
deferred pending a satisfactory MBFR agreement.
72. Any substantial or permanent reduction in the size of BAOR below
55,000 men would require a revision of the Brussels Treaty. We do not
envisage that this would present difficulties if the reductions were
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