(735) Dd.145178 400m 5/73 G.W.B.Ltd. Gp.863
NOTHING TO BE WRITTEN IN THIS MARGIN
CONFIDENTIAL AND PERSONAL
the Defence Review are unlikely to be known until
several months later; and that, since most of the
programme is married quarters, these are buildings which you would want if ever the army did
relinquish any of them. Second, they say that if, against expectations, the Defence Review did result
in really drastic decisions, the capital works
programme could be stopped before any new money had actually been spent (i.e. the middle of next year). Thirdly they estimate (and this is more of a guess than the other two) that whatever the results of the
Defence Review, it would be unlikely, if only for
practical reasons, to result in the removal of
significant numbers on the ground until 1976. They
argue therefore that the defence agreement would most
probably expire before the second trigger point
could be reached.
6.
་
But,
In view of this there would seem to be no
technical reason against a review now, under the
cost escalation clause, and some harm in delay.
given the general sensitivity of the defence
contribution question in Hong Kong, we would be very grateful for your personal assessment (with CBF if
you think it desirable) of whether this is the right
moment to begin a review under that head with the
other possibilities looming ahead of us.
7. Assuming that we do decide on discussions under
3(1)(a), the next question would be the sums involved.
The present MOD estimate is that the extra funds
needed to carry out the existing programme will be about HK$80 million. This would be over and above
the 50% increase in costs already incurred, all of
/which