DJM45170 40mm 5/73 G.W.B.LAd. Gp.863

CONFIDENTIAL & PERSONAL

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5. We have questioned the Ministry of Defence

experts on whether, with this possibility in

mind, it would be appropriate or desirable

to go ahead with a review of the defence

contribution under the cost escalation clause.

Their answer has been three-fold. First they

say that planning of the capital works must

continue if there is not to be a serious hiatus

in the programme; that decisions have to be

taken by June for the reasons I have explained;

and the results of the Defence Review are unlikely

to be known until several months later. Second,

they say that if the outcome of the Defence Review

works was to affect any item in the programme signifi-

A

cantly, the letting of contracts for capital

works could be stopped before any new money

had actually been spent (i.e. the middle of next

year). Thirdly they estimate that whatever

the results of the Defence Review, it would be

unlikely, if only for practical reasons,

to

result in the removal of significant numbers

on the ground until 1976. They argue therefore

that it would be very late in the current

agreement before the second trigger point could

any was

be reached.

6. In view of this there would seem to be no

technical reason against a review now, under

the cost escalation clause, and some harm in

delay. Aut, given the general sensitivity of

the defence contribution question, in Hom, ens,

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TT AT ! TODYYNT

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