28
On a seasonally adjusted
the sheer enormity of the increases we have recently been
observing becomes even more striking and it must, surely,
be appreciated that these cannot have been unconnected with
the extraordinarily rapid increases in the retail prices
of food over the last year or so.
basis, these increases amounted to 75% in the case of rice,
36% in the case of bread and cakes, 19% in the case of fish
(marine and pond fish), 24% in the case of fresh pork, 31%
in the case of fresh beef and nearly 60% in the case of
vegetables.
78.
In the case of marine fish, which is not, for the most part, imported, retail prices have also increased rapidly in the past year: by 22% on a seasonally adjusted basis. But here it was the exceptionally bad weather in
the third quarter of 1973 when prices increased by 16%
which played such a significant role. The bad weather was also significant in the case of fresh vegetables (where domestic production makes up 40% of total consumption):
prices increased by 70% in the third quarter. And I would
point out that, although the retail prices of fresh vegetables
reached unprecedented levels in the third quarter of 1973, they plunged sharply (by 40%) in the fourth quarter with the
seasonal increase in supplies.
There was also a decline,
though less noticeably, in the prices of marine fish in the fourth quarter; and the prices of both fresh vegetables
and marine fish have continued to fall this year, despite
seasonal increases around the Lunar New Year.
79.
(iii) Internal inflationary influences
But, I fear, in spite of these figures showing the
influence of import prices and bad weather, some will still
claim that internal inflation is even now playing a significant
role. I would not deny the possibility of internal inflation playing a role in the latter months of 1972 and the early months of 1973. But I do not think that internally
generated inflation is now significantly aggravating the
situation.
/(A).....