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State Department had the same impression. A year ago the Chinese were genuinely frightened. But now China thought that she had more nuclear weapons in the ground than the Soviet Union could destroy. This was a cause of self-confidence. The Chinese were no longer afraid of a pre-emptive strike and did not fear a conventional attack (which could be swallowed up). It was true that the Brezhnev doctrine of limited sovereignty would never be forgotten in China. But there was less immediate worry now.
12. Referring to the Indian nuclear test, Mr Wilford said that he had asked the Chinese Ambassador whether China would give Pakistan nuclear weapons if requested. The Ambassador had replied immediately: 'We would not help'.
13.
On Chinese support for insurgency in Burma, Mr Hummel said that such behaviour was uncharacteristic of Chinese foreign policy. Until 1967, the Chinese had always been very correct in their relations with Burma. He had hoped that the Chinese involvement in Burma might have made Malaysia and Thailand sufficiently nervous to mention the issue to the Chinese as their relations with Peking developed; but there was no sign yet that this had actually happened. Mr Hummel said that it was unclear what the Chinese hoped to achieve. It was
possible that they wanted a "soft area" all along the Yunnan border, and were now setting up the southern part of such an area. The area which they were creating was not large enough to be a base from which the insurgents could overthrow the Burmese Government. Mr Evans said that until recently he had thought that the "carry over" theory was probably correct; this postulated that there had been a change of policy at the centre, but that this had not yet filtered down. But this theory was now beginning to seem less likely. An alternative possibility was that the Chinese were trying to have their cake and eat it; they wanted good relations with the Burmese Government and at the same time wanted a border area in which they had a special position. Mr Youde thought it possible that the Chinese were anxious to avoid allowing the area to become a political vacuum. It was known that the KMT had been active there; and it might be that what they were doing was simply an insurance move.
Distribution
Mr Wilford
Mr Male
Planning Staff
Assessments Staff
FED (to enter)
RD (FE)
NAD
UN Department HKIOD
PUSD
Energy Department
Claims Department
SED
EESD
SAD
SEAD
Chanceries:
Peking Washington Moscow Tokyo Paris
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