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That arrest along with increased enforcement activity along the Thai and Laotian sides of the tri-border area has brought about both a buildup of opium stocks and a drop in price on the Burmese side, according to U.S. intelligence estimates. In addition, the withdrawal of U.S. troops stationed in South Vietnam has caused a backlog of opium and heroin stocks particularly in the Tachilek area and in South Vietnam.
Although no one has determined how much opium and its various derivatives are stored in Tachilek and other refinery locations, it is estimated that over 300 tons of opium has been convoyed to Tachilek since January 1972. The following list shows the status of the current market in Tachilek compared with last year's prices:
Raw opium.. Heroin (No. 4). Morphine base.
1971
(April-July) (per kilo)
$36 1,780 495
1972 (August) (per kilo)
$14 300-400
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The market is also reported as being depressed in the Shan State areas of cultivation. There, the farmer, whose crop is financed by Chinese ethnic entrepreneurs, is absorbing the loss. Whether the back- log of opiates and the depressed prices can be translated into a short- age on the consumer end is not evident. Insofar as local consumption is concerned, there is no evidence of a shortage in Bangkok, Saigon, or Hong Kong.
Furthermore, there are indications that growers and traffickers are convinced that the current depression in the market is only tem- porary. Growers are reportedly buying fertilizer for next year's poppy crop and major traffickers such as Lo Hsing-han are attempting to modernize their operations. This is an indication that the major traffickers do not view the current depression as being permanent.
There are, however, developments which demonstrate that recent enforcement efforts in the tri-border area have caused the traffickers to experiment with different routes. One such route which U.S. intel- ligence sources have identified involves the capital city, Rangoon. Originating in the town of Pinlaung in the southern Shan State, the new route bears straight south to Toungoo, Pegu and reaches Rangoon where the opiates are transshipped either by rail or water to Moulmein. From the latter location, the shipments are transported down through Tavoy, and Mergui to Victoria Point in the Malaysian peninsula. It has not yet been determined whether the shipments then go to Bangkok or whether other routes are used.
While in Rangoon, the Survey Team was told by Burmese officials that trafficking through Rangoon was impossible due to stringent government controls. In view of the development cited above, it is evi- dent that the Burmese Government must increase its vigilance throughout all of Burma. If the Government of Burma does exercise control in the Rangoon area, there must be some acquiescence to the traffickers as is the case in Tachilek.
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