CONFIDENTIAL
3. AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, WE WOULD NEED TO BE VERY SURE OF OURSELVES BEFORE DOING THE SAME FOR BENELUX, FURTHERMORE, IN THE CASE OF GERMANY OUR ACTION WAS INFLUENCED BY THE VERY STRONG
IMPRESSION THAT IMPORT RESTRICTIONS WERE IMMINENT: WE HAVE NO SUCH
IMPRESSION WITH THE BENELUX. AS YOU SAY, THE PROBLEM, IF ANY, IS WITH THE NETHERLANDS, WHO, FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GAUGE IN OUR CONTACTS WITH THEIR OFFICIALS, SEEM TO BE TAKING A FAIRLY RELAXED VIEW, THIS MAY BE PARTLY BECAUSE THEIR TEXTILE INDUSTRY
IS IN ANY CASE HARD PUT TO IT TO STAND UP TO ITALIAN AND FRENCH
COMPETITION AGAINST WHICH NO PROTECTION IS POSSIBLE.
+
4, OUR EXPORT STATISTICS SO FAR THIS YEAR CERTAINLY SHOW A SHARP RISE IN POLYESTER/COTTON SHIPMENTS TO THE BENELUX. BUT, AS
ALWAYS WITH DECLARED EXPORTS TO THE BENELUX, THE ROLE OF ROTTERDAM
MAKES IT HARD TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE TRADE IS INTENDED FOR
INTERNAL CONSUMPTION AND HOW MUCH FOR DISTRIBUTION TO OTHER
EUROPEAN MARKETS. IT COULD WELL BE THAT OUR UNILATERAL RESTRAINT
TO GERMANY IS BEING CIRCUMVENTED BY SHIPMENTS VIA THE BENELUX,
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NO EVIDENCE OF THIS. IF WE FOUND ANY, IT MIGHT
PROVIDE US WITH A PLAUSIBLE EXCUSE FOR SOME ACTION IN RELATION TO
THE BENELUX: BUT IT WOULD HARDLY CONSITUTE A STRONG REASON FOR IT,
5. INDEED, AN EXAMINATION OF THE FIGURES OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD 1971, 1972 AND THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 1973 WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT
THE BENELUX COULD NOT ESTABLISH NEARLY AS GOOD A CASE FOR
RESTRAINT AS GERMANY, PARTICULARLY ON THE 1972 PERFORMANCE. IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT, THEREFORE, TO JUSTIFY A 1972 BASE DATE IN THEIR CASE OR, FOR THAT MATTER, THE BACKDATING OF ANY RESTRAINT UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR AND THE COVERAGE MIGHT ALSO HAVE TO BE
COMEWHAT DIFFERENT. SO, EVEN IF WE WERE TO AGREE TO UNILATERAL ACTION IN THEIR CASE, IT COULD HARLY BE JUSTIFIED ON THE SAME BASIS
AS FOR GERMANY.
6. IN VIEW OF ALL THESE DIFFICULTIES WE FEEL THAT IT WOULD PROBABLY
NOT BE POSSIBLE TO GAIN THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE TEXTILES ADVISORY BOARD
FOR AN EXTENSION OF UNILATERAL RESTRAINT TO THE BENELUX UNLESS
THIS COULD BE SHOWN TO BE
(A) SATISFACTORY TO THE BENLUX COUNTRIES THEMSELVES:- AND
--2- CONFIDENTIAL
/(B)
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