12
means that Hong Kong does not have to
not
indeed could
correct an adverse balance of payments situation by
exchange rate adjustments.
19.
So much for the past. I must now try to
answer the question: what influence can the four historical
determinants I have just analysed be expected to exercise
in the future?
II Future Prospects
Progress and Development
20.
Over the next decade, Hong Kong's population is
expected to grow at about the same rate as in the past ten
years, that is, by about 20%.
This means that the gross
domestic product, in real terms, will need to continue
growing at about 7% per annum on average if per capita
income is to increase at the average rate of about 5% per
annum achieved in recent years. This is a formidable
rate of growth but it is one which I believe is possible.
Population Growth
21.
Although a population growth rate of something
of the order of 2% per annum will help generate a need for
a continuing rapid rate of expansion of the economy in order
that the present rate of growth of real income per capita
can be maintained, it can also be expected to provide a
supply of additional labour sufficient to meet the demand
for it which a growth rate of about 7% would generate.
And this is even after allowance is made for declining
activity rates which could be consequential upon the
/increasing affluence.....