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Sir E Norris
Mr. Royle
Private Secretary
THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG
Senelaing of State
Cofferord
10/15
1. We are committed to an annual review by the DOPC of
the future of Hong Kong.
2. There is no need to rehearse at length the reasons why
we want to stay in Hong Kong. These were fully covered in
DOP(71)83. Nothing has happened during 1972 to invalidate
the argument of that paper. Indeed the line which the Chinese
leaders took with the Secretary of State in November strengthens
our previous conclusions. We should make this point in a new
paper.
3. I think we should also deal with the question of the
timing of any approach to the Chinese, which was not covered
in the 1971 paper. There is a growing likelihood of public
discussion which could damage confidence in Hong Kong.
Moreover, we should not risk getting into a situation where
hostility from the present or a subsequent Chinese government
had damaged confidence to the point where we had to negotiate
in unfavourable circumstances. We should therefore be on the
look out for a favourable opportunity for informal soundings
4. If we were prepared to abandon the hope of staying beyond
1997, the chance of an agreement or understanding on orderly
withdrawal in 1997 probably exists now. It is also possible
that this chance may disappear when the present Chinese
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