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WHITEHALL 5422
CABINET OFFICE
ممد
LONDON S.W.I
3 January 1973
I have covered the point in my sutaristion
adi
Deras Stuart. лого
Plaa
Sir E. Nonis to
thes P/A
Abs
3/1
of today
3/1
The Future of Hong Kong
Thank you for sending me a copy of your minute of 21 December to Richard Evans, enclosing a draft paper on this subject.
2. I do not have the 1971 paper before me and am reluctant to get
involved too far in the policy issue, which is not my present concern.
My main comment is that it will not do to say simply that the con- clusions of DOP (71) 83 are still valid. Those conclusions include
the statement that we should take preliminary and informal soundings with the Chinese Government nearer 1997; and the question which needs
examining is whether we should seize the present time to take such soundings. The argument in favour of early action could run that we may never have it so good in terms of Sino/British relations; that the preliminary soundings need not preclude any of the three courses (i), (ii) and (iii) in your paragraph 1 and would merely be the first tentative enquiry; that if these soundings led to fruitful discussion
there would be advantage in a Sino/British understanding over Hong Kong, however general, achieved before Mao's death and endorsed by him; and that Chou En-lai seems to be operating on this principle in obtaining Mao's approval for the main lines of Chinese foreign policy. There are obvious counter arguments which you will wish to deploy, but the point deseryes attention. As your paragraph 7 suggests, we should be ready to seize a favourable opportunity, otherwise we may be compelled to approach the Chinese at a time when they are ill-disposed
to us.
/3.
I have
A.C. Stuart, Esq.,
Foreign and Commonwealth Office.
CC:
Mr. Wilford
Mr. Cable
Mr. Evans