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for relief and rehabilitation for Bangladesh; nor our share of the cost of a renewed cnsortium effort to help Pakistan. We cannot at present usefully estimate the cost of either of these. The Secretary General of the United Nations has recently reported an estimated requirement for relief for Bangladesh until the end of 1972 of more than 8565 millions. In so far as this formidable figure has validity, it would no doubt relate to the demands on the Eastern as well as the i Western bloc; but at present it is our only guide to future needs. The forthcoming consortium meeting may provide some idea of the likely additional requirements for Pakistan. see no possibility of our meeting these demands, whatever our share proves finally to be, from this revised programme. At the appropriate time I shall therefore have to ask for further sums for this purpose. It has, as you know, always been my view that, while we have in the past succeeded in carrying within the aid programme substantial sums for relief, relief in itself is not a proper charge on a programme of development assistance.
I
It is these likely requirements of the sub-continent which, owing to their exceptional size and nature, will be the main difficulty next year. There romains the problem, however, that in addition to the cuts referred to in the fifth paragraph above, I shall only be able to keep within the ceiling of £278 millions if there is also an expenditure slippago of a further £30 millions. Present figures suggest that this may well not take place. This is why I cannot be sure that, even with the most strict management, I shall be able to keep within the programme; but I shall make the strongest possible attempt to do so. If it proves impossible or if, in my judgment, we are faced with fresh demands that need to be met on compelling political or economic grounds, I may have to ask you for additions to the programme. immediate point is that, in this period when we are trying to work out a more effective means of managing the programme than is provided by the present estimating adjustment, I should be grateful if we could hold over until later years any reduction in the programme otherwise required next year to offset over-expenditure this year.
An
There is one last point which I think I must add to this extremely long letter. When my officials reported this situation to the Treasury, they drew attention to the request by the Treasury for proposals for counter-cyclical measures in the coming year. These exchanges between officials are continuing, but I believe there is great force in the view that the aid programme, a high proportion of which (particularly in the case of India) is used to finance British goods, appears
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