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XCS(71)3
Proposed Duration of Arrangements
5
2
The agreement shortly about to expire covered a period of four years. It seems desirable for both political and administrative reasons to avoid a situation in which agreements on defence costs have to be frequently renegotiated. Moreover, in a period of rising costs, a trend especially notice- able in Britain, it appears to be in the interests of Hong Kong that the duration of any new agreement should be certainly of no less a period than the current one. It is accordingly proposed that whatever arrangements are entered into should have effect for a period of five years from 1st April 1971. All figures contained in the memorandum are related to this and, if a different period of validity is to be considered, it will be necessary to make adjust- ments to the calculations.
The Security Requirement and Size of the Garrison
6
The Chiefs of Staffs' professional assessment, regardless of financial considerations, of the Army resources that can be employed with effect in Hong Kong to meet the foreseeable requirements of both internal and external security is 7 2/3 major units, as defined above, with appropriate support. Frior to 1967 the manner in which this was to be provided was by the permanent stationing in Hong Kong of 5 2/3 units, with plans for reinforce- ment by one major unit at a few days' notice, and by an additional unit at a rather longer period of notice. It was on this basis that negotiations for the current defence costs agreement were initiated; but it was also known that HMG were seriously contemplating at the time the reduction by one of the major units in the permanent garrison. This possibility was a factor taken into account by Hong Kong in the course of negotiations and it certainly affected in some degree their final outcome.
7
Since then there has been the experience of the 1967-68 emergency which made it amply clear that it would be very unwise if the projected reduction in the garrison were to take place, and it was at that stage con- cluded that the minimum permanent military garrison should be 5 2/3 major units with one additional unit available from Singapore on a reinforcement basis, and further reinforcement available at longer notice from the United Kingdom.
8
Subsequent events have been the reappraisal of the Hong Kong garrison by the Labour Government in the light of its decision to withdraw British Forces from the Far East (under which dispensation it was proposed to station 7 2/3 major units here permanently), and by the present Govern- ment which has determined that in the light of its world wide commitments and of the current situation, Hong Kong should have a garrison of 6 2/3 major units with reinforcement by one major unit available from UK at seven days' notice. At the same time, the rundown of base and headquarters facilities in the Far East, even under the present Government's plans, have made some increments to the CBF's headquarters necessary; and provision of a naval presence has also been made on a scale not considered to be necessary when there were naval forces available elsewhere in the Far East Theatre.
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