SECRET
could reasonably agree.
All three telegrams have been cleared
at official level with the Treasury and the Ministry of Defence.
In the third telegram (the annex to the message) paragraph 4
has been cleared with the ODA, paragraph 5 with the DTI and
paragraph 7 with the Prime Minister's Office.
7. It seems likely that the Unofficial Members will respond to
these three telegrams (if they are approved) in one of three ways:-
8.
(a) they will continue to procrastinate;
(b) they will offer a sum approaching the £8.5 million
an average of £7.5 million or even £8 million a year;
(c) they will offer a much lower sum
a year.
perhaps £6,million
If it were decided not to accept any offer (under (b) or
(c) above) or if ho offer were made ((a) above) it would be
necessary to consider one or more of the following courses:-
(i) coming down from the figure of £8.5 million;
(ii) a reduction in the size of the garrison;
(iii)
imposing a contribution by the use of the official
majority in the Legislative Council.
None of these possibilities has yet been studied in detail.
Jaguar It is too soon for this. ((ii) and (iii) would involve
making an assessment of the internal security consequences,
if any.)
9. Since the attached draft telegrams do not depart from the
policy agreed at Ministerial level last February other
departments do not consider it necessary to submit them to
their Ministers. They intend however to report to Ministers
when we have the reaction of the Unofficial Members to this
latest message from the Secretary of State.
2.
3.
SECRET
/10.