:
and in reply to a PQ on 8 February 1971 the Minister for Trade said
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"The present system of quota controls will then ie 1 January
19727 be terminated"
In the current notice to importers the wording used is
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"It is intended to terminate the global arrangements at the
end of 1971. Import licences will no longer be required for cotton textiles shipped from the global quota countries once the quota scheme has ended. This will also apply to imports from India and Hong Kong.
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The second sentence is ambiguous. CT argue that it means only that quota reductions will not apply to cotton textiles shipped after the quota scheme has ended - ie shipped after the end of 1971, but I suspect that many importers would interpret it in the sense that import licences will no longer be required for any imports arriving after the end of 1971.
6.
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For my part I think that CT's fears of the effects of complete cessation of import controls after the end of this year are exaggerated. There is likely to be a higher rate of import this year as all the countries concerned will want to get their supplies in before the tariff comes into effect, but CT accept that nothing can be done about this. All that maintenance of the import control could do would be to deter further shipments at the end of 1971 in excess of the quota destined to arrive in 1972.
It seems questionable to me, however, whether maintenance of the control, while it would slow down arrivals in early 1972, would necessarily affect the total imports in 1972. I would expect the supplying countries to send in as much as they can sell at the price as enhanced by the tariff.
7. The questions of the reaction of the supplying countries and of the need for the control are not, however, strictly matters for us to raise as licensing authority. Keeping strictly within our terms of reference, the first point that we must make is that the proposal could be operated only if all the countries concerned agree to provide the necessary evidence of date of shipment by issuing export certificates, and for my part I can see no reason why they should except under duress. Even if this indispensable condition is satisfied, there is still the difficulty in that there will almost inevitably be some excess shipments at the end of 1971, particularly as in the past it has been the practice to allow the following year's quota to be anticipated to the extent of 8%. If this occurs, it will be extremely difficult to get away politically with a tough policy of seizing excess shipments, when nominally tariff protection has been substituted for qr, and all the more so as importers have in the past generally been allowed to get away with some excesses over the 81% limit (with CT's agreement) except in the most flagrant cases. Unless, however, our threats are pretty rigorously enforced, there are likely to be unfortunate reactions on the efficacy of our import control elsewhere. Furthermore importers, under the reasonablę impression that there will be no qr after the end of this year, may have already entered into commitments.
reluctan
8. I would therefore be very reluctant to agree to CT's proposal. CT are now very anxious to reach an early decision on the arrange- ments since they are under strong pressure from Hong Kong. Hong Kong has been pressing very strongly for some tariff concession on textiles shipped within the quota before the end of 1971 and have pointed out that, as a distant supplier, they will be particularly hardhit. In a telegram of 9 'March (doo 26) they have requested a
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