early next year were not shipped in 1971 in excess of the quotas, and holding over importers the threat of
seizure of goods so shipped. Without such a
measure the quotas which HMG have said would remain in
force until the end of 1971 would effectively
break down from about mis-October onwards, because so
long as goods did not arrive until the New Year there
would be no check on whether they were covered by quota
or not. There will anyway be considerable bunching of imports later this year because, without tariff relief, Commonwealth Preference Area suppliers will have every
incentive to ship the whole of their quota entitlement to
arrive this year before the tariff comes on, instead of carrying over some shipments (as is normal) into the early months of the following year. Unless the quotas are enforced
this bunching will be aggravated by the arrival, from the
very beginning of 1972, of goods shipped outside the quota in 1971 by countries and suppliers previously
held down by the quotas and scrambling (as CT Division
and importers are convinced they will) for bigger market
shares in the new unrestricted conditions.
enforcement would defer this im
Quota
for up to three
months (for distant suppliers like Taiwan and Korea) and
so spread the impact on the market.
3 It is important to spread it as much as possible.
Excessive bunching (which unless we did what we could to
check it could, in CT Division's view, mean
of up to 18 months' normal supplies in little over 12 months) would expose HMG to serious criticism from
/Lancashire