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Nothing would be possible pending a change of Government
inside China. Once a Government which seemed amenable was
in power cautious informal soundings might still reveal that
a negotiation could not be concluded because:-
(a)
the Chinese wanted to have their cake and eat it by
making us continue to administer Hong Kong under their
control;
(b) their conditions were so humiliating as to be
intolerable;
(c)
the Chinese preferred to continue to obtain the
economic benefits of our administration;
it was clear that Hong Kong opinion would not accept
(a)
a negotiated withdrawal whatever HMG's intentions were;
(e) political feeling within the Conservative Party, and
indeed in this country as a whole, might not permit
it.
Course 4(c)(i) Negotiation for an orderly British withdrawal in 19977
Subject to the existence of a Government in China with which
negotiation seemed feasible it might still be impossible to
reach agreement for some of the reasons given under Course 4(b).
If it became apparent that we were attempting to negotiate and
béing rebuffed the effect on confidence might be catastrophic.
The outcome might be humiliating expulsion from the whole Colony
in 1997 at the expiry of the lease. Alternatively it might
become clear that, while China was adamant about recovering all
her territory in 1997, she was prepared to cooperate in
preparing for an orderly transfer of administration and would
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/permit