Paras. 4.7 and 4.8 of Volume I
Amex
The bonefits of improved mobility which the system will bring will
diffuse over the economy and in particular expand the Colony's labour
market.
POPULATION AND TRAVEL PROJECTIONS
12.
This is possibly the most complex part of the Consultants' work and it is recommended that Members read Chapter 4 of Volume I in full. Figure 4.1 offers a diagrammatic explanation of the major com- ponents in this exercise "nd the order in which they were undertaken.
13.
Population Projection. In their original study the Consul- tants assumed a 1985 population of 6.9 millions. This projection was revised by Government following the 1966 bi-census to give a 1986
population of 5.7 millions. Almost all the forecast reduction is
likely to be reflected in the slower development of the New Territories. Although the forecast shows a 17.5% reduction in overall population by 1986, nevertheless the reduction in population in the area served by the recommended subway system will amount to only 7.5%.
14.
Planning Parareters. In studies of this sort the most difficult single element to resolve is the use which the population can be expected to make of the variety of transport facilities available. Fortunately, since the original Feasibility Study followed hard upon the heels of the Passenger Transport Survey, the Consultants had access to a wealth of information relating to travel habits. They refined this information for the Feasibility Study and have again adjusted the planning data prosented in that study to take account of changes in the projected population. A summary of the specific changes in planning parameters is attached as Annex 'A'. (Appendix Table A 4.1). Generally speaking the changes are of a minor nature. Exceptions are a large reduction in employment in the zone near Junk Bay, an increase in employment opportunities along Clearwater Bay Road and large reductions in employment at Tsing Yi, Castle Peak and Shatin.
15.
Estimate Total Trips. After all adjustments were made to the forecast of total trips by all modes of travel the Consultants found that the new total estimate of all trips (except school trips) in the Urban Area would increase by 1%. In the New Territories, as was to be expected, total trips in 1986 are forecast to be about one third less than was estimated in the original study.
ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS TESTED
16.
It was obvious at the start of these further studies that the system recommended by the Consultants in the Feasibility Study would need considerable modification. The Shatin Line was almost certainly not justified and there was considerable subt about the double line
CONFIDENTIAL