If such a regime were to emerge there would be

much to be said for attempting to negotiate the

return of Hong Kong on the best terms available

for its people, or perhaps even for exploring the

terms on which the Chinese might envisage an

extension of our tenure. But as I indicated

above, there is, as yet, no solid ground for

believing that such a regime would be more

accommodating.

Moreover, the whole matter is so

hypothetical and subject to so many imponderables,

that it is doubtful if anything is to be gained

by attempting now a detailed assessment of the

possibilities.

6. To sum up, the general

conclusions which I

should like my colleagues to endorse are these:

(a) There is no prospect of our reaching

agreement about the future of Hong Kong

with the present Chinese Government.

(b) Any unilateral attempt on our part now

to work towards some new status for

Hong Kong would lead to an immediate

loss of confidence within the Colony

and could quickly be disastrous.

(c)

If a more pragmatic government were

to emerge in China we should consider

the possibility of negotiating with them

new arrangements for Hong Kong.

But

it would be premature to attempt now a

detailed assessment of the possibilities.

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