saliently gloomy features of the problem as they

emerge from study are these:

(b)

(a) The Chinese Government have at their

disposal (even without the use of military

force) the means of making our position in

the Colony humiliating and intolerable.

In whatever circumstances we abdicate our

position, it will be impossible to

discharge all our responsibilities to the

Hong Kong Chinese, or to remove or protect

all British and Hong Kong owned assets;

and we shall in effect be abandoning some

millions of unwilling inhabitants to

Communism (of whom about two million are

citizens of the U.K. and Colonies).

(c)

(a)

If we were to try to withdraw from Hong

Kong prematurely, it is by no means

certain that the Chinese would accept our

renunciation of authority. They might

attempt to force us to maintain a "puppet"

British administration under their control.

If it is assumed that the Colony will be

returning to China not later than 1997

(the termination of the lease of the "New

territories") there must, as this date

approaches, be a decline in confidence

in the Colony leading to the possibility

of prolonged economic recession. This

could be quite a significant factor in

the situation by the 1980s, if not before.

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13.

It

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