(118281) Dd. 391599 1,500M 2/69 Aw.

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K (69)

HONG KONG:

LONG-TERM STUDY

In March 1969 the Secretary of State circulated

(K (69) 1) to his colleagues on the Hong Kong Committee a report

on the long-term future of Hong Kong prepared by a

Committee of officials. This report has not yet been

taken by the Committee.

2.

In the meantime we have given further thought in

the FCO to an a spect of the subject to which the

official report perhaps paid too little attention -

namely, to the admittedly outside chance that a more co-operative government in China in the years to come might make possible some sort of negotiation with them about Hong/Kong's future. If this were the case it would at least mean that there was a chance of

bringing HMG's connection with Hong Kong to a conclusion

which was not wholly unsatisfactory.

But our

conclusion was that such a situation was hypothetical

and subject to so many imponderables that there was little purpose in attempting at this time a detailed

Assessment of the possibilities.

3.

Because of the length and detail of the official (K (69) 1) report it was decided to prepare a fresh covering paper for circulation to the Committee under the Secretary of State's name, identifying the issues on

which Ministers would have to take decisions and

the taking this opportunity to set out the further

conclusions mentioned in paragraph 2 above.

4. A draft is attached for the Secretary of State's

approval. It has been agreed with Sir L. Monson and Sir S. Tomlinson and approved by Lord Shepherd

before his departure for the Pacific. If the Secretary of State approves the paper it is hoped that

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