Dd. 32855 Ed (4200)
NOTHING TO BE WRITTEN IN THIS MARGIN
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3-
6.
(c)
(a)
There can be no question of a large scale
movement of population from Hong Kong elsewhere. The majority, including some 2 m. citizens of the U.K. and Colonies, would if the Colony became part of China pass under Chinese Communism against
their will.
The Chinese have the capability to occupy the Colony by overwhelming force of arms without warning and with no hope of a successful military defence on the part
of the Garrison. In these circumstances
an evacuation, even of U.K. citizens, would be a hazardous operation and very few could probably be extricated.
would sat
to
(e) It is at least possible that] the Chinese
[would not permit Britain to abandon the
administration of the Colony, but would] in- sist in our remaining in most humiliating conditions with real control in their
hands.
Although the situation viewed from H.M.G.'s
position seems thoroughly uncomfortable ranging
from the possibility of a major military disaster
to a humiliating expulsion leaving enormous
numbers of British citizens in alien Communist
hands there are certain other facts to be considered
(a) Hong Kong is China's largest trading
partner and this trade is today worth
7,50
% 600 m (U.S.) annually in foreign
exchange.
This is approximately 40%
of China's total earnings. It more than pays for all her cereal imports. The day
Hong Kong returns to China this flow of
foreign exchange will cease and China will
have difficulty in finding markets for her
farmers who at the moment provide food for Hong Kong at a vastly higher standard of
living than exists in China.
(b) Hong Kong under Chinese ownership will no
longer be the power house it is today.
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/Nor