there have been fourteen substantive anti-British items on a variety of domestic and external topics, as well as numerous incidental references. From our experience of the Chinese treat- ment of other countries, it is clear that such a concentration could not be accidental. Furthermore, the Chinese have been totally unco-operative in granting permission to travel to members of the Mission, whereas members of other Missions have been allowed to do so.
The Situation in Hong Kong
4. The situation is at present quiet. Local communists appear to be engaged in a slow rebuilding of their position but are under instructions not to cause trouble. The Prisons Board of Review has completed its work and has not recommended the remission of sentences on any further confrontation prisoners. According to the Chinese, there are still 134 left (earlier Hong Kong informa- tion had predicted 125 at the end of 1969 see the paper forwarded by the Political Adviser under reference SCR6/2621/67 of 30 October, 1969). The criteria in accordance with which the Review Board work suggest that further remissions are unlikely. If this is so, we shall have to wait until the end of 1974 before the total of prisoners is down to 7 and by the end of 1977 there will still be 2 remaining prisoners as well as 2 others serving life sentences. The question of an amnesty for confrontation prisoners has been ruled out by the Governor. At the meeting with officials in London on 25 November, the Governor agreed that he would consult in advance before any new measures were taken against communist sympathizers. He was urged to exercise restraint in the interests of British subjects detained and the functioning of this Mission, but gave no undertaking to do so. The possibility remains that certain confrontation prisoners for whom warrants are still out- standing might be arrested and if the sentences they receive are comparable with those in 1967 (e.g. 5 - 8 years) the list of long- term prisoners could lengthen.
Prospects
5. The Chinese would probably like to improve relations with us both as part of the general process of normalization in external relations and because they wish to maintain their lines to the West in the event of increased difficulties, or even hostilities, with the Soviet Union. At the same time, relations are in many respects already satisfactory from their point of view in that trade in and through Hong Kong is being maintained, and they are able to increase their trade with the United Kingdom in so far as they wish, despite the political difficulties. They know that no effective sanctions will be taken against them in the interests of British subjects; indeed it is difficult to see that any form of sanctions is feasible. For these reasons, I do not think that there is any pressure on the Chinese to be helpful towards us in the political field in the absence of movement on our side.
1*17 T
16.