CONFIDENTIAL
SPEAKING NOTES
Chinese Internal Problems
Mao has only succeeded in purge of C.P. of "revisionists".
Party otherwise hardly reconstructed and there have been reports of malaise and worse among ordinary people.
Still relying on P. L.A.
orders on how to do it.
Succession.
to maintain and restore order, but conflicting
Politburo containing 3 groups representing
(a) P. L.A.
(b)
(c)
Cultural Revolution
Government leaders.
P. L.A. and Government leaders seem to be most influential.
Mao can prevent divergences developing into disputes.
Sino Soviet Dispute
Conflict unlikely to escalate: Chinese aware of military inferiority: Russia 2 from Kosygin's visit appears to have rejected use of military advantage to seek a political solution while isolating the Chinese
diplomatically.
Rapprochement unlikely while Mao is there. If he went, dramatic change unlikely but rapprochement likely to take form of improvement in economic relations and lowering of public thvective
Continuance of dispute short of war to our advantage.
Large-scale hostilities would have incalculable consequences for our
interests.
Sino-British relations. Hong Kong prisoners. We are aware of slippery slope if we held out any prospect of concessions over convicted prisoners in H.K.: favour silence.
Disadvantages of saying that there are no differences of view with H.K.
Statement of "no concessions" drive Chinese into entrenched position.
Lay off references to improving Sino-British relations
recognise need to keep margin of safety in maintaining public confidence
in Hong Kong.